itle：Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

标题：现在可以从全球范围内任何一天的天气中检测到气候变化

作者：Sebastian Sippel 1,2,3*, Nicolai Meinshausen 2, Erich M. Fischer1, Enikő Székelyg1, and Reto Knutti1

1 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

2Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

3Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway.

4Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich and EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland.

E-mail: sebastian.sippel@env.ethz.ch[1]

杂志：Nature Climate Change, volume 10, pages35–41(2020)

DOI： https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7[2]

原文摘要

长此以往，气候科学家传递给公众的都是“天气不是气候”的观念，气候变化也被框定为天气分布的变化缓慢地出现于这数十年里主要的气候变率中1-7。然而，现阶段考虑全球性的天气则是一个未知的领域。在这里我们基于全球观测的单日温度和水汽来检测外部驱动气候变化的“指纹”所得到的结论是：地球作为一个整体正在变暖。我们的检测方法通过统计学习和气候模型模拟来封装每日温度和湿度的空间模式与关键的气候变化指标（例如，全球年平均温度或地球的能量失衡之间）之间的关系。观测数据投影到这种关系中来检测气候变化。根据一年的数据，从2012年初和1999年以来观测到的全球记录中的任何一天都可以检测到气候变化的“指纹”。即便是忽略长期全球变暖的趋势，检测的结果也是很稳健可靠的。这是对传统气候变化检测的补充，但也为区域天气事件的交流打开了更广阔的视野，改变了气候变化的叙述方式：尽管几十年来局地的天气变化正在出现，但现在就能即时检测到全球气候变化。

Abstract

For generations, climate scientists have educated the public that ‘weather is not climate’, and climate change has been framed as the change in the distribution of weather that slowly emerges from large variability over decades1-7. However, weather when considered globally is now in uncharted territory. Here we show that on the basis of a single day of globally observed temperature and moisture, we detect the fingerprint of externally driven climate change, and conclude that Earth as a whole is warming. Our detection approach invokes statistical learning and climate model simulations to encapsulate the relationship between spatial patterns of daily temperature and humidity, and key climate change metrics such as annual global mean temperature or Earth’s energy imbalance. Observations are projected onto this relationship to detect climate change. The fingerprint of climate change is detected from any single day in the observed global record since early 2012, and since 1999 on the basis of a year of data. Detection is robust even when ignoring the long-term global warming trend. This complements traditional climate change detection, but also opens broader perspectives for the communication of regional weather events, modifying the climate change narrative: while changes in weather locally are emerging over decades, global climate change is now detected instantaneously.

数据、代码

数据[3]

All original CMIP5 data, reanalyses and observations used in this study are publicly available under the following URLs.

CMIP5 model data: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/;

reanalysis:

ERA-Interim (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim),

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html),

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2 (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html),

Twentieth Century Reanalysis (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/);

observations (monthly): GISTEMP temperature dataset, version 3 (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/),

Cowtan and Way (2014) temperature dataset, version 2 (https://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/series.html),

Berkeley Earth Monthly Land+Ocean temperature dataset (http://berkeleyearth.org/data/), Met Office gridded land surface humidity dataset (HadISDH),

version 4.0.0.2017f (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisdh/);

observations (daily): Berkeley Earth Daily Land temperature dataset (Experimental, http://berkeleyearth.org/data/),

NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST), AVHRR-Only (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oisst).

All intermediate and derived data from these products (extracted CMIP5 fingerprints and daily/monthly time series of the test statistic (that is, obtained by projecting CMIP5 models, reanalyses and observations individually onto the fingerprints)) are available at https://data.iac.ethz.ch/Sippel_et_al_2019_DailyDetection/.

代码[4]

All computer code to reproduce the main results and all figures and Extended Data figures is available at https://data.iac.ethz.ch/Sippel_et_al_2019_DailyDetection/

图文

References

[1] sebastian.sippel@env.ethz.ch: mailto:sebastian.sippel@env.ethz.ch[2] https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7[3] 数据: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0666-7#data-availability[4] 代码: https://data.iac.ethz.ch/Sippel_et_al_2019_DailyDetection/

import requests
headers = {
 'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; WOW64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/66.0.3359.181 Safari/537.36',
 }
data = {
 'identity':'irw27812@awsoo.com', 
 'password':'test2018',
}
url ='https://www.itjuzi.com/user/login?redirect=&flag=&radar_coupon='
session = requests.Session()
session.post(url,headers = headers,data = data)
# 登录后，我们需要获取另一个网页中的内容
response = session.get('http://radar.itjuzi.com/investevent',headers = headers)
print(response.status_code)
print(response.text)
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import requests
headers = {
 'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; WOW64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/66.0.3359.181 Safari/537.36',
 'Cookie': '你的cookie',
}
url = 'https://www.itjuzi.com/user/login?redirect=&flag=&radar_coupon='
session = requests.Session()
response = session.get('http://radar.itjuzi.com/investevent', headers=headers)
print(response.status_code)
print(response.text)
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from selenium import webdriver
from selenium.webdriver.common.by import By
from selenium.webdriver.support import expected_conditions as EC
from selenium.webdriver.support.wait import WebDriverWait
browser = webdriver.Chrome()
browser.maximize_window() # 最大化窗口
wait = WebDriverWait(browser, 10) # 等待加载10s
def login():
 browser.get('https://www.itjuzi.com/user/login')
 input = wait.until(EC.presence_of_element_located(
 (By.XPATH, '//*[@id="create_account_email"]')))
 input.send_keys('irw27812@awsoo.com')
 input = wait.until(EC.presence_of_element_located(
 (By.XPATH, '//*[@id="create_account_password"]')))
 input.send_keys('test2018')
 submit = wait.until(EC.element_to_be_clickable(
 (By.XPATH, '//*[@id="login_btn"]')))
 submit.click() # 点击登录按钮
 get_page_index()
def get_page_index():
 browser.get('http://radar.itjuzi.com/investevent')
 try:
 print(browser.page_source) # 输出网页源码
 except Exception as e:
 print(str(e))
login()
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